Western and Central Mediterranean situation

The suffering and loss of life continue unabated for refugees and migrants traveling across Africa or northward toward the Mediterranean. The number of perishing or reported missing at sea alone, some 10,351 individuals since 2020, is a tragedy, with no end in sight. While public attention is focused on sea movements to Italy and Spain, there is less awareness of movements by land from East, Central and West African countries across the Sahara Desert to North Africa and from the Sahel to West African coastal States. Movements across all routes exact a devastating human toll. At least 6,048 people are believed to have died or gone missing while transiting the Sahara Desert to Libya and Algeria since 2014. The figures for deaths at sea and on the land routes are both likely to be severely under-reported.  

In 2023, regional displacement patterns did not fundamentally change, but more people were forced to move onwards because of worsening security in the Sahel region and in the East and Horn of Africa, and climate shocks were a contributing factor. The eruption of conflict in Sudan in April 2023 added hugely to already large humanitarian needs and triggered massive internal and cross-border displacement, with 825,000 refugees and 280,000 returnees leaving for neighbouring countries, potentially fueling complex mixed movement flows in the region. Sudan was already a country of departure and transit, with Ethiopians and Eritreans crossing the country towards Libya. The new conflict in Sudan, South Sudan’s economic and sociopolitical situation and Eritrea’s human rights situation make those countries unconducive to returns. At the same time, Sahelian countries witnessed a series of coups, further aggravating the dire political, security and economic situation and spurring mixed movements to North Africa and to coastal States in West Africa. 

Many people in need of international protection in sub-Saharan regions moved to Libya in 2023, transiting through countries such as Chad, Egypt, Niger and Sudan. Others arrived in Morocco and Tunisia by land, sea and air. In several countries along the main routes, the presence of non-State armed groups limited the ability of UNHCR and partners to provide protection and assistance. The competent authorities also denied UNHCR and its partners access to some key crossing points. Cross-border and cross-regional criminality, including trafficking in persons, remained serious concerns, while fragile State systems and weak rule of law hindered protection and social stability. A lack of due process and human rights safeguards on asylum and migration management led to refugees and migrants returning in adverse circumstances to some countries of origin.

Population movements due to forced displacement and migration in East, West and Central Africa are likely to continue in 2024 at the same pace as 2023 or at an even higher rate. Mixed movements will continue throughout Africa, not just towards the north, but within and between all regions. Only a small part of these movements is expected to be towards Europe, although irregular sea movements from Libya and Tunisia are likely to be at the same level as 2023 or they may increase. Sea movements on the Western Mediterranean and North-west Africa maritime routes may also increase as increasing numbers of asylum-seekers, refugees and migrants arrive in North Africa and a significant number attempting to reach Europe. In parallel, increasing numbers of North African nationals (notably Algerians, Egyptians, Moroccans, and Tunisians) are also expected to attempt this perilous crossing.  

A downturn in funding means UNHCR and its partners will be obliged to make difficult choices in prioritizing interventions to save lives, improve protection and access solutions, and could undermine the potential for impact foreseen in an all-of-route, holistic approach.  

In 2024, UNHCR in close cooperation with IOM aim to:  

• Strengthen cooperation with States and international organizations for better coordinated search and rescue (SAR) operations both at sea and hopefully on land;  

• Be present at key border, or arrival points along the route for identification of international protection and humanitarian assistance needs; 

• Ensure migrants and refugees receive life-saving assistance upon disembarkation and in border areas;  

• Support to States along the route with asylum capacity development to enhance their ability to increase State-based protection;  

• Work to end the criminalization, obstruction or deterrence of those conducting rescue at sea and providing humanitarian assistance;  

• Promote safe, regular, complementary pathways that meet the needs and uphold the human rights of all refugees and migrants, and support access to pathways through outreach and multipurpose hub;  

• Strengthen the identification, referral and protection for victims of trafficking and unaccompanied and separated children, including with access to justice;  

• Work to addressing drivers by stepped up engagement to improve development programmes, education and skills development as well as safe and fair livelihoods opportunities for youth Engaging with people on the move, through digital and others means, at key points of contact along the route;

• Take targeted actions to assist states along the routes to improve safe and dignified return, readmission and reintegration of migrants and voluntary repatriation of refugees.  

UNHCR continues to advise States and the maritime shipping industry that Libya is not a place of safety for the purpose of disembarkation following rescue at sea. UNHCR will continue facilitating dialogue and collaboration on strengthening rescue at sea with and between coastal States, flag States, SAR NGOs, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) and the International Chamber of Shipping (ICS).  

UNHCR will strengthen collaboration with IOM in line with their Framework of Engagement, as well as with other partners, to enhance data collection and analysis on land and sea movements, and to reinforce communication and advocacy related to protection of refugees and migrants. The two organizations will also engage with national government authorities to facilitate safe, dignified and legal returns for those found not to be in need of international protection or without other grounds for legal stay in receiving countries. Working with partners, UNHCR will continue to analyse the drivers and risks of dangerous journeys and onward movements and will seek  access to durable solutions, in line with the Global Compact on Refugees and UNHCR’s “Three year strategy on resettlement and complementary pathways”. Renewed emphasis will be placed on advocacy with national authorities to increase access to resettlement and to explore innovative avenues to complementary pathways. The protection of children and youth against risks associated with irregular movement will be prioritized.   

Addressing protection and solutions within mixed movements requires outreach to communities along the routes that combines information-sharing, awareness-raising, and programmatic interventions. As such, local authorities in cities along these key routes will be important partners in UNHCR’s Cities #WithRefugees initiative, a cooperation between  United Cites and Local Governments, the Mixed Migration Centre, the International Centre for Migration Policy Development, and other partners.