Since early 2015 with the adoption of the Minsk Agreement, Ukraine has had a partial ceasefire along a 427 km-long line of contact running through Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in eastern Ukraine. A ceasefire statement agreed in July 2020 has resulted in a reduction in shelling, damage and casualties. However, progress in negotiations is limited. Although civilian casualties decreased by nearly 18% in the first nine months of 2020 as compared to the previous year, people living along the contact line continue to suffer from the effects of regular shelling, including property damage, psychological stress and economic blight. The protracted nature of the conflict coupled with restrictions on movement across the contact line introduced due to the COVID-19 pandemic, affected social cohesion and deepened economic hardship.
The COVID-19 pandemic has hit Ukraine hard. WHO forecasts significant increases in infections through the first quarter of 2021 and there are already shortages of hospital beds in some regions.
After a sharp economic decline in 2014-2015 related to the conflict, Ukraine’s economy grew slowly, but as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, the IMF expects Ukraine’s GDP to fall by 7.2% in 2021. In eastern Ukraine, local economies have suffered disproportionately because of insecurity, displacement, and interruption of markets. Critical infrastructure, such as water and electricity systems, are fragile in the east, while the inflation rate was 4.5% in 2020.
Following presidential and parliamentary elections in 2019, Ukraine changed government again in March 2020 and held local elections in October 2020. The UN is preparing a Humanitarian Response Plan for 2021. UNHCR took a leading role in preparation of the pillar on ‘human security, social cohesion and recovery with a focus on eastern Ukraine’ which is an integral part of the UN Partnership Framework for 2018-2022. UNHCR has ensured inclusion of its people of concern in the UN Partnership Framework, as well as the Socio-Economic Recovery Plan linked to the COVID-19 pandemic.
As per UNHCR’s multi-year, multi-partner strategy (MYMP), the key assumptions for operations in different zones of the country are as follows:
Zone 1 (line of contact): Armed conflict will continue with periodic flare-ups and skirmishes, damaging homes and creating new humanitarian needs, but with limited displacement. In government-controlled areas (GCA), UNHCR will maintain the capacity to deliver protection and humanitarian assistance to people living along the line of contact. Large-scale displacement is likely only in the event of intensive fighting or damage to critical infrastructure. Contingency planning must be continuously updated.
Zone 2 (Non-government-controlled areas [NGCA]): UNHCR will be permitted to conduct activities, but its humanitarian access will be limited to certain regions and therefore activities restricted. The humanitarian needs in Zone 2 have grown due to the conflict and economic factors, and relatively few humanitarian actors are able to respond. This creates a greater imperative for UNHCR to maintain its response in Zone 2, while implementing a series of risk mitigation measures relating to the complex operational context. It is foreseen that UNHCR will not have access to the Autonomous Republic of Crimea.
Zone 3 (Rest of Ukraine): UNHCR can deliver individual and community-based support for protection and solutions in prioritized areas of Zone 3. The focus will be on durable solutions and transition to development.