The number of new arrivals has drastically decreased due to the COVID-19 pandemic to an average of 31 individuals monthly in 2020. Despite continued instability in the Great Lakes region and the East and Horn of Africa, the number of new arrivals is expected to remain relatively low, an average of 50 persons per month in Maputo and Nampula. The forecast is based on the expected slow improvement of the COVID-19 situation around the continent. However, the new arrival movements will depend greatly on border restrictions linked to the COVID-19 situation. In 2020, population trends remained relatively steady with a slight decrease in the percentage of arrivals from Burundi (from 33% in 2019 to 32% in 2020). Persons of concern to UNHCR arriving from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) also decreased (from 38% in 2019 to 37% in 2020). UNHCR continued the registration of asylum-seekers from Côte d’Ivoire which decreased from 1.5% in 2019 to 1.2% in 2020. The remaining arrival trends remained stable with 14% from Rwanda, 13% from Somalia, and 1% from other countries. By October 2020 the total refugee and asylum-seeker population was 26,543 individuals, out of which 9,546 (36%) live in Maratane Camp. The remaining 16,997 (64%) live in urban areas, including in Nampula City, provinces of Tete, Cabo Delgado and Zambezia as well as in Maputo area. Biometric verification and registration are expected to be completed in 2021 to confirm the population figures.
The population of IDPs may grow further if the security situation in violence-affected areas in Cabo Delgado remains volatile or deteriorates further. Some of those IDPs are also in areas prone to natural disasters including tropical cyclones and this requires a particular attention to their vulnerability.