Ethiopia - 2019 plan - Planning Assumptions and Expected Constraints

2019

Ethiopia is Africa's second most populous country with an estimated population of nearly 100 million people. It has achieved a considerable economic transformation over the last two decades, reducing poverty rates and expanding investments in basic social services. Nonetheless, millions remain food insecure. The 2018 Humanitarian and Disaster Resilience Plan which was launched on 13 March 2018, seeks US$1.66 billion to reach around 7.9 million people in need of assistance following recent successive failed or under-performing seasonal rains, an increase in conflict-related displacement in the border areas of the Oromia and Somali regions, and a lack of recovery opportunities. According to OCHA, there are 2.7 million Internally Displaced People (IDPs) in the country out of whom 2,2 million are conflict-affected and 500,000 climate-affected IDPs
On 2 April 2018, Ethiopia's legislature elected Abiy Amhed as Prime Minister, amid hopes that he will be able to quell sustained anti-government protests over the last three years. Abiy was sworn in to office, succeeding Hailemariam Desalegn who resigned in February 2018 as a result of widespread anti-government protests. Rights group have purported that the protests claimed the lives of several hundred people mainly in the Oromia and Amhara regions. It is anticipated that the 42-year-old Oromo politician will seek to bring an end to the protests that have continued since late 2015, through a comprehensive reform agenda and the release of opposition political leaders. In February 2018, Ethiopia declared its second State of Emergency in two years amid protests that crippled transportation networks and forced the closure of businesses.
 
The country is home to the second largest refugee population on the continent, currently hosting some 910,000 registered refugees from countries, including South Sudan, Somalia, Sudan, Eritrea and Yemen. It maintains an open door policy for refugee inflows into the country and allows humanitarian access and protection to those seeking asylum on its territory.
 
Continued insecurity within neighbouring states has resulted in sustained refugee movements, either directly as a result of internal conflict and human rights abuses or as a result of conflict related to competition for scare natural resources and drought related food insecurity. Eritreans, South Sudanese, Sudanese, Yemenis and Somalis originating from South and Central Somalia are recognized as prima facie refugees. Nationals from other countries undergo individual refugee status determination (RSD).
 
Efforts have  been made to ensure the alignment of the MYMP (2017-2020) with the UN Development Assistance Framework for Ethiopia for 2016-2020 (UNDAF).  UNHCR Ethiopia is currently included in the five UNDAF results groups, namely Disaster Risk Management, Health and Nutrition, HIV, WASH, and Education.  A revision of the second year UNDAF work-plan is ongoing.  Efforts are underway to ensure that the revised work-plan also reflects ongoing discussions on CRRF and the Leaders’ Summit pledges.  This includes engagement in the Social Protection Rights Group and the Equality and Empowerment Rights Group, to link with our core protection activities in 2018 and beyond.  The Ethiopian Government has committed itself to a five-year Growth and Transformation Plan from 2016-2020, upon which UNHCR also seeks to build.
 
Efforts have also been made to align the MYMP with the Nairobi Declaration, and the accompanying plan of action under the auspices of the Inter-governmental Authority on Development (IGAD).   The Nairobi Declaration states priorities under that plan, namely delivering durable solutions, whilst maintaining the protection space and promoting the self-reliance and inclusion of refugees in countries of asylum. The National Plan under preparation will align also with the strategy.