New displacements and returns occurring in parallel in 2017 are bringing the total number of IDPs by the end of 2017 to 6.3 million. In view of the expected increasing return trends, this number is anticipated to decrease to 5 million by end-2018. Considering the volatile and unpredictable situation in Syria, these figures are estimates based on the most likely planning scenario, which encompasses an escalation of the crisis in some parts of the country, resulting in multiple displacements, and a stabilization of the situation, owing to local “reconciliation” agreements, “de-escalation zones” and lasting ceasefires, and therefore return movements, in other parts. For the inter-agency programs under the HRP, data on displacement is gathered and analysed by OCHA from various sources, including SARC, the High Relief Committee and other actors, including in opposition-controlled areas. The crisis has affected all parts of the country, albeit at a different scale, and IDPs are scattered across the entire country. The vast majority of the IDPs are living in self-organized accommodation, which they often share with their extended family or community members, leading to crowded conditions and, therefore, protection risks. Less than 10% of the IDPs are hosted in collective shelters, camps and transit sites, often in sub-standard conditions.
The total number of registered refugees in Syria decreased from some 21,100 individuals at the end of 2015 to 19,800 individuals (85% being Iraqis) by end-2016. The crisis has severely affected refugees in Syria, and prompted many to spontaneously return, relocate to neighbouring countries, or make their way illegally to Europe. The registered refugees reside exclusively in urban settings, mostly in Damascus and Al-Hassakeh governorates. The number of asylum-seekers increased to a total of 12,500 by end-2016 (88 per cent being Iraqis). The camps in Newroz and Roj, which were created in 2015, host some 3,700 Iraqis (Yazidis and Arab-Sunnis) fleeing developments in north-eastern Iraq. Since April 2016, an additional 10,000 arrivals from Iraq have been accommodated in the rehabilitated Al-Hol camp, including the influx from Mosul since October 2016. For 2018, the number of refugees and asylum-seekers is expected to stand at 58,600.