As of 31 December 2017, UNHCR Ethiopia has been providing protection assistance to 892,555 active refugees and asylum-seekers in the country. Of these, refugees are mainly from the neighbouring countries like South Sudan (421,867), Somalia (253,889), Eritrea (164,668), Sudan (44,386), Yemen (1,771) and sixteen other countries (5,974). Among these population, 50.5 % are females while 49.5% are males. In the year 2017, due to the ongoing conflict in the neighbouring countries, the operation received a total 109,851 new arrivals mainly from South Sudan (70,539), Eritrea (23,704), Somalia (6,696) and other locations (8,912).
In 2018, through the Registration Multi-Year Plan of Action, UNHCR Ethiopia will undertake countrywide verification exercise with the aim to enhance the integrity and accuracy of the figures for refugees in Ethiopia. The comprehensive registration will be driven by the unified registration system where the Government and UNHCR will work to ensure sufficient protection support to the refugees. Despite enrolment into the Biometric Identification Management System (BIMS) of all refugees in Ethiopia, the change in the refugee population from 2017 to 2018 may be insignificant with more focus given to data accuracy at the end of year. The slight variation in the refugee population in Ethiopia could be explained by the monthly change rate observed in 2017. The dynamic change in the refugee population is foreseen as follows:
- 1,461 individuals per month updated as new-born babies,
- 3,110 individuals per month updated as result of inactivation,
- 1,308 individuals per month updated as result of activation,
- 8,662 individuals per month updated as new registration including new arrivals, and
- 1,500 individuals per month updated for merge, split and other activities.
The registration exercise is expected to be completed in 2018 or early 2019. Sporadic fighting, insecurity, persistent drought, food insecurity in Somali and South Sudan, may continue to drive new arrivals in Ethiopia. Also, continuous human rights abuses, religious persecution or fear of forced conscription in Eritrea will be an additional factor for new Eritrean refugees to come to Ethiopia. As a result of these factors, the refugee population in Ethiopia in 2019 could be as follows:
- 525,000 refugees and asylum-seekers from South Sudan
- 220,653 refugees and asylum-seekers from Somalia
- 123,841 refugees and asylum-seekers from Eritrea
- 65,000 refugees and asylum-seekers mainly from Sudan
- 30,304 refugees and asylum-seekers in urban areas, Kenya Borenas and other POCs of various nationalities.
The above estimations for 2019 include expected cases for resettlement, spontaneous departures and possible voluntary repatriation for various cases from the nationalities that constituted the refugees population in Ethiopia.
With the office restructuring to have more focus on the IDP population and the expected progressive establishment of security mechanisms in the Somali and Oromia regions, UNHCR Ethiopia projects by the end of 2019 there may be around 1,600,000 internally displaced persons in Ethiopia.