As of 30 September 2018, there were 31,991 registered refugees and asylum seekers in Somalia (15,997 refugees and 15,994 asylum seekers). Of these, 11,923 originate from Yemen (1,612 arrived in 2017), and 19,560 from Ethiopia (1,423 arrived in 2017). The majority of this population, 60%, resides in Somaliland, 30% are in Puntland and 10% in Mogadishu (almost all from Yemen). There is a steady entry of asylum seekers from Ethiopia through Somaliland with 80,000 to 100,000 persons travelling in mixed migration flows between Yemen and the Horn of Africa in 2017, primarily from the Bossaso port. In 2018 and 2019, it is expected that the number of asylum seekers will continue to outpace refugee status determination, in particular due to deteriorating security situations in Yemen and Ethiopia. As a result, it is estimated that UNHCR Somalia will assist approximately 19,700 refugees and 19,270 asylum seekers by the end of 2019. In 2019, the office will make a concerted effort to shift direction towards capacitating the Government to address the legal recognition and registration of refugees/asylum seekers. Since December 2014 UNHCR has assisted over 85,720 Somali refugees to repatriate from eleven countries of asylum. From the onset of voluntary returns from Kenya in December 2014 until 30 September 2018, a total of 82,399 refugees from Kenya have returned to Somalia with returns in 2017 approximately equal to 2016. From the onset of the Assisted Spontaneous Return (ASR) programme from Yemen in September 2017 until 30 September 2018, a total of 2,400 refugees from Yemen have returned to Somalia, with the Berbera port in Somaliland serving as the entry point. An additional 921 refugees have also returned from Djibouti (647), Libya (229), Eritrea (34), Tunisia (3), Angola (3), Gambia (2), Cambodia (1), Ukraine (1) and Pakistan (1). Returns are expected to continue in 2019, in particular from Kenya and Yemen. Although the number of supported returns will be dependent on the funding situation in countries of asylum, it is estimated that an additional 92,200 Somalis will return in 2019, of which 40,000 from Kenya and 50,000 from Yemen. Within the indicative operating level budget, UNHCR Somalia will only assist 19,000 returnees with the enhanced package. According to the 2018 Humanitarian Response Plan there are an estimated 2.1 million IDPs in Somalia as of 31 October 2017. There is no evidence yet from Protection and Return Monitoring Network (PRMN) data to indicate that significant IDP returns have started or are imminent – substantially all of those displaced during 2017 remain displaced near urban centres to access humanitarian assistance because of lack of food, water or livelihoods as a result of the drought or lack of access by humanitarian actors (Non-State Armed Groups-NSAGs or other conflict/insecurity) in their home settlements. Under the Information Management Working Group, UNHCR is currently engaged in updating this figure which, by 2019, is expected to be significantly higher, more likely in the range of 2.6-2.9 million IDPs.
