Refugees: As of the end of 2018, Ukraine hosted 2,620 recognized refugees and people with complementary protection and around 6,400 asylum-seekers. The population is very diverse, including people from 60 countries, with a disproportionate number of single men of working age. Among refugees and asylum-seekers, 23% are women and girls. Until the start of the conflict in 2014, an average of 1,500 people per year applied for asylum in Ukraine. Most entered the country irregularly through the eastern border with the Russian Federation. The number dropped sharply after the conflict. In 2018, the number of new asylum applicants increased by 20%, but remained low at 931 applicants. The recognition rate in 2018 remained stable at 26% but was comparatively low for people from refugee-producing countries such as Afghanistan and Syria. Based on the trend of the last year, it is reasonable to assume an approximately 20% annual increase in asylum applications in 2020, along with a modest increase in the refugee recognition rate.
Stateless persons: The authorities have not yet adopted a procedure for determining whether a person is stateless; therefore, the registered number of stateless people (5,650 at the end of 2018) is considered to significantly under-estimate the actual population of stateless people in Ukraine. Several groups in Ukraine are at risk of statelessness or having undetermined nationality. People living in NGCA face administrative and financial challenges in obtaining official birth registration from state authorities in Ukraine. UNHCR estimates that as of December 2018, some 46,000 children born in NGCA have not obtained Ukrainian birth certificates, exposing them to a risk of statelessness in the future. Under certain circumstances, adults with residence registration in NGCA face challenges in confirming their nationality. Other groups at risk include migrants from Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries, homeless people, Roma, and people released from penitentiaries. There are many obstacles for individuals who lack documentation to approach the authorities and obtain recognition of their statelessness.
IDPs, people at risk of arbitrary displacement and IDP returnees: The UN estimates that 800,000 IDPs reside in GCA, and of those with humanitarian needs, 54% are female and 30% are older people. Studies show that three-quarters of IDPs indicate that they plan to remain where they have settled for the near future. IDPs living further from NGCA (i.e., not in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts) are more likely to express a wish not to return. Thus, it is expected that absent a breakthrough in resolving the conflict, there will be a limited number of returns from GCA of Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts, particularly of families where no one is in the workforce because of age or disability. Older people—who are disproportionately female—will be more likely to return. The IDP population in other regions will remain stable.
Some 600,000 people live within 5 km of the line of contact, and are affected by the ongoing, armed conflict. Despite the many risks, the population has stayed; some have even returned to these areas, usually because they do not have enough money to pay for housing in other areas of Ukraine. It is expected that the size of this population will remain stable or could rise if a more durable ceasefire is agreed, creating conditions for more people to return.
In NGCA, there are also several thousand people displaced by the conflict.