In 2021, the situation is likely to remain relatively similar to the previous year. The smooth transition of power after the 2020 elections may contribute to opportunities for the reintegration of IDPs as well as an increase in refugee returns among the Burundian population currently residing outside the country. UNHCR expects the number of Burundian returnees to increase to 142,890 in 2021 compared to an expectation of 50,000 in 2020. In 2021, UNHCR expects the number of Congolese refugees to increase beyond the current 87,000 individuals. Insecurity in the eastern provinces of the Democratic Republic of Congo due to infighting between armed groups, especially from the territories of Uvira and Fizi which border Burundi, could lead to an increase of refugees. Based on the trend of asylum-seekers in 2020, it is expected that an average of 1,200 individuals will seek asylum in Burundi each month, for a total of around 15,000 new refugees in 2021. As there is not a high likelihood of voluntary repatriation of the Congolese refugees to DRC, the total population of people of concern in Burundi could reach 110,000 individuals by December 2021.
