Iraq - 2021 plan - Population trends

2021

Refugees: As of 31 October 2020, there were 282,571 refugees in Iraq, including 241,738 Syrians (85.6% of the total), 20,610 Turks (7.3%), 10,813 Iranians (3,8%), 7,964 Palestinians (2.8%), 766 Sudanese (0.3%) and 680 others (0.2%). The overwhelming majority, 257,867 refugees (91.3%), reside in the KRI, while the remaining 24,605 (8.71%) live in central and southern governorates. Those in the KRI are assisted by UNHCR field offices in Erbil, Duhok and Sulaymaniyah. In the KRI, 37.8% of refugees are housed in ten refugee camps, while 62.2% live in urban areas. All 24,605 refugees in federal Iraq reside in urban, peri-urban or rural areas. 47.9% of refugees in Iraq are female and 52.1% are male.

As a consequence of the COVID-19 pandemic, the border with Syria was closed for much of 2020, which meant far fewer returns and new arrivals than expected, with 2,154 new arrivals and 7,801 spontaneous returns to Syria through the Peshkhabour border crossing point during the year. Among the returnees, 86% went to the Al Hassakeh region and 14% went to the Aleppo region. The main reasons for returning to Syria were lack of jobs in the KRI (35.8%) and family unification (30.4%).

No major change in arrivals or departures is foreseen in 2021 unless there are significant developments in Syria, but UNHCR projects that the overall refugee population will grow slightly to 285,980 by the end of 2020, 292,340 by the end of 2021, and 304,070 by the end of 2022, as a result of new arrivals, improved data quality and verification processes, spontaneous departures and resettlement. No significant change for other refugee and asylum-seeker populations is expected.

IDPs: According to the International Organization for Migration’s Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM), there were 1,278,864 IDPs in Iraq on 31 October 2020, with Ninewa governorate hosting the largest number. Between October 2019 and October 2020, there was a 16% decrease in the formal camp population across the country. Large numbers of IDPs reside in informal settlements and many live in critical structures such as unfinished buildings, mosques, and school buildings.

Many of the 4.7 million returnees continue to face limited access to basic services and security while contending with destroyed properties, critical or non-existent infrastructure, and lack of livelihood opportunities and financial resources, which at times leads to secondary displacement. UNHCR, through the durable solutions task force, is working to identify solutions for those who are unable to return to their areas of origin.

The estimated number of stateless persons in Iraq is not available, pending a mapping and a quantitative survey to be conducted in coordination with the authorities. UNHCR's planning figure is based on estimates of 47,000 persons at risk of statelessness as of the end of 2020, with a decrease to 46,500 by the end of 2021 thanks to the provision of individual legal assistance that enables some individuals to acquire nationality documentation. While the GoI has not confirmed this figure, no alternative figure has been provided.